Market Outlook #246 (twentieth November 2023)
Howdy, and welcome to the 246th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s submit, I might be masking Bitcoin, Ethereum, Polygon, Avalanche, Uniswap, Beam, Sushi and LayerAI.
Most of those have been reader requests this week – as ever, ship these throughout to me for subsequent week’s inclusion if there’s one thing particular you need .
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $37.263
Market Cap: $728.411bn
Ideas: If we start by BTC/USD, on the weekly timeframe we are able to see that value closed final week at marginal new yearly highs, having depraved decrease in direction of the prior weekly low earlier than bouncing again above the $36k space and shutting shy of $38k resistance. While this was a terrific present of energy from bulls and there are nonetheless no indicators but that we’ve topped on this timeframe, the very fact we now have three consecutive weekly lows unswept because the breakout candle is one thing to remember for after we inevitably do mark out an area prime. We’re sat proper round prior help right here and above $38k we’ve no resistance into $39.6k, which I believe could be a pit cease earlier than the inevitable run into that main confluence of resistance at $42k: that is the place we’ve an vital historic degree in addition to the 50% fib retracement of your complete bear market. Little question, if we are able to settle for above final week’s excessive this week, then that’s the extent we’re headed for earlier than marking out any prime. If, nonetheless, we wick above $38k and shut the weekly again beneath it, I believe it appears extra seemingly we’d like some type of sweep of draw back liquidity earlier than continuation.
Turning to the day by day, we are able to see that value is making larger lows on the day by day having reset RSI after the momentum divergence, and prior resistance has turn out to be help at $36k. Holding above that early this week is vital – break beneath it and I believe we’re a transfer again in direction of $34.2k as a minimum. Above it, nonetheless, I believe we proceed to push, with day by day closes above $38k opening up the subsequent leg larger after this consolidation in direction of $39.6k after which $42k. Nothing else so as to add right here actually besides that, if we do get a dip after this big rally, I’d be wanting on the vary between $31k-34k as a first-rate shopping for alternative for 2024.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $2029 (0.05447 BTC)
Market Cap: $244.205bn
Ideas: If we start by ETH/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that value moved decrease to retest the trendline as help, bouncing and shutting proper again close to the weekly open, just under reclaimed resistance at $2037. There may be nothing about this that presently appears bearish to me: we’ve a powerful trendline breakout, with that trendline appearing as help, and consolidation proper at an vital resistance degree. Above $1850, this stays the case, in my opinion. If we shut the weekly again beneath $1850, it’s seemingly we transfer to retest that $1717-1740 vary as help, the place bulls would search to type a higher-low. However for now, I count on to see any acceptance above $2037 this week result in $2172 giving method after which a squeeze to fill within the hole into $2425. Dropping into the day by day, we are able to see that RSI has reset as value retraced into resistance turned help, failing to shut beneath $1957 on a number of makes an attempt. From there, value has pushed up into $2036, which is vital resistance. Bulls need to see a day by day shut above this adopted by that degree appearing as help. If we see that, lengthy your longs in direction of $2425. On this timeframe, indicators of weak point could be rejection right here adopted by a day by day shut beneath $1957.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we are able to see that value rejected above the 200wMA once more final week, with 0.0577 appearing as resistance and sending the pair again beneath 0.055, with it closing at 0.0538. We’re presently sat between reclaimed help at 0.053 and the 200wMA as resistance. Clearly, the bullish state of affairs right here could be a weekly reclaim of 0.055 as help – in that state of affairs, I believe we see ETH outperform for just a few weeks, pushing up into that trendline. Nevertheless, if we now reject the 200wMA once more and begin closing beneath 0.053, I believe the yearly lows at 0.051 get taken out and value runs into 0.0487. Trying on the day by day, we are able to see how 0.0533 is appearing nearly as good help at current however day by day construction is bearish following the break again beneath 0.055; bulls actually need to see that degree flipped as help as soon as once more after which we are able to count on to see one other check of 0.0577. Very clear construction right here.
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
MATIC/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $0.858 (2303 satoshis)
Market Cap: $7.972bn
Ideas: If we start by MATIC/USD, on the weekly we are able to see from the weekly that value has rallied for a number of weeks after forming a backside above reclaimed help at $0.47, pushing via the 200wMA a few weeks in the past after which rejecting simply shy of $1 resistance final week, with value now sat above reclaimed help at $0.75 and beneath $0.93 as resistance. From right here, I’d count on to see the 200wMA act as help if that is to stay short-term bullish, with any weekly shut again beneath $0.75 opening up a deeper retracement in direction of $0.62 to type a higher-low above the September-October backside there. If $0.75 holds this week, I’d count on one other crack at $1 to observe with nothing above that for one more 30% into $1.31. Dropping into the day by day, we are able to see how value rejected proper across the 38.2% retracement of the bear market, with the 50% confluent with that $1 space. Clearly, for bulls, $0.92 can’t now act as resistance on a retest from beneath, else we’ve a decrease excessive and one would think about a deeper pull-back would observe, with the 200dMA aligned with reclaimed help at $0.68 as a primary space of curiosity. Settle for again above $0.92 and that is gonna squeeze a lot larger, for my part.
Turning to MATIC/BTC, we are able to see right here that value rejected beneath the 200wMA, confirming it as resistance at 2450 satoshis and is now sandwiched between reclaimed help at 2100 and that 200wMA and prior help. Closing the weekly again above this might be a vastly promising signal for bulls, and I’d count on a spot fill to observe again in direction of 3200 satoshis from there. If we shut the weekly again beneath 2100, that invalidates lots of this construction and bulls are again at sq. one, with the multi-year lows at 1700 satoshis in plain sight…
Avalanche:
AVAX/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
AVAX/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $22.17 (59,514 satoshis)
Market Cap: $7.926bn
Ideas: Starting with AVAX/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that value has been on a tear this previous few months, rallying from the multi-year lows at $8.60 all the best way into $24.77 final week, closing marginally above help turned resistance at $21.70 that had capped the highs all yr. Quantity continues to develop but when we now see value break again beneath $21.70, I’d be searching for $18 to carry as a higher-low given the energy of the rally. Trying on the day by day for extra readability, we are able to see how above this degree there’s little or no resistance in any respect again into $30, so any alternative to get lengthy on a pull-back right here could be golden; there’s some momentum exhaustion creeping in and if we do see value retrace into $18, I might be searching for indicators to get lengthy on the decrease timeframes, with a view to carry for that $30 degree. Under $18, a deeper pull-back would have us wanting on the vary between $12-15 for entries. After all, if we aren’t gifted a pull-back in any respect and $21 acts as help this week, a day by day shut above $25 will seemingly result in the remainder of that vary getting stuffed in fairly rapidly.
Turning to AVAX/BTC, we are able to see that value has rallied proper into a serious degree of prior help turned resistance, proper on the Might 2022 backside round 60k satoshis. Final week, value depraved above this degree however closed again on the degree, and we now have a very sturdy vary of reclaimed help beneath at 48.5-41k satoshis the place a higher-low could look to type. If we do see that higher-low formation, and that aligns with an entry primarily based on the Greenback pair, the subsequent space of resistance above 60k is that trendline and the 23.6% fib retracement at 84k satoshis…
Uniswap:
UNI/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
UNI/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $5.26 (14,109 satoshis)
Market Cap: $3.969bn
Ideas: Starting with UNI/USD, we are able to see that value has lastly turned market construction bullish once more on the weekly after deviation beneath help at $4.21 led to a bounce off trendline resistance turned help and subsequent rally again above the extent, with value closing firmly above $4.75 and persevering with larger. We are actually sat with $4.75 having acted as help final week and $5.68 as resistance above; if we are able to maintain above $4.75, I’d count on this minor resistance to offer method with $6.30 the most important degree above to observe for. Nevertheless, if we see value break beneath that reclaimed help eventually week’s low, I’m searching for a return to $4.21 for a possibility at a leveraged lengthy. I do have a spot place however I want to get levered publicity as near $4.21 as I can get it if potential. Dropping into the day by day, we are able to see how value reclaimed the 200dMA which is now appearing as help, however given how that performed out final time (August) it offers confluence for the significance of holding above $4.75 right here for bulls. Above $5.68, there’s air into $6.30 after which into $7.50. Let’s see if we get the golden alternative for a leveraged lengthy…
Turning to UNI/BTC, we are able to see that value broke beneath the double backside at 14.4k satoshis just a few weeks in the past, capitulating into multi-year help at 12k satoshis after which reclaiming 14k satoshis as help since. Worth is now sandwiched in between prior help turned resistance at 15.3k satoshis and help at 14k. If this degree provides method once more, I believe 12k is getting taken out and value runs the all-time low at 9.9k satoshis, which might be an unbelievable long-term shopping for alternative if we’re to count on UNI to stay vital subsequent cycle. Till that is again above 17k satoshis, nonetheless, I don’t suppose it appears notably sturdy.
Beam / Advantage Circle:
BEAMX/USD
Every day:
Worth: $0.0092 (25 satoshis)
Market Cap: $400.281mn
Ideas: While I’m conscious MC is now BEAM or BEAMX, for the needs of study I’ve shared the MC/USD chart right here in order that we are able to see all of price-history.
Taking a look at this, we are able to see how sturdy the reversal has been since turning the 200dMA into help, with value now pushing up once more $0.93 as resistance, with that degree additionally being the final main resistance degree between right here and the subsequent degree – 100% larger at $1.88. We’re seeing some momentum exhaustion right here as we come into this resistance, so if we’re to mark out an area prime it might seemingly be round right here, however I’d count on any pull-back into $0.60 to be devoured up given the energy proven to date. For these searching for an entry, I’d search for $0.60-0.65 as a primary space of curiosity for spot, adopted by $0.44 in case you are fortunate sufficient to get it. For these already on the prepare, benefit from the journey, as I’m anticipating not less than $4 to be hit in 2024.
Sushi:
SUSHI/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
SUSHI/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $1.08 (2892 satoshis)
Market Cap: $208.653mn
Ideas: Starting with SUSHI/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that value has performed out its bear market in a textbook style, capitulating into $0.48 (simply above the all-time lows) in Might earlier than forming a multi-month vary above this degree. Worth then ripped larger, rallying via $0.75 to show weekly construction bullish and persevering with via the year-long help for, 2022 at $0.90. Worth has since been consolidating above that degree as reclaimed help, and persevering with to carry above this degree could be very promising certainly for SUSHI bulls. If we do get a pull-back, look ahead to a pointy wick beneath $0.90 in direction of $0.75 and instant reclaim of the extent as help. That may be a sign to get lengthy if we see it. If we drop into the day by day for readability, we are able to see how a swift transfer into $0.75 would additionally mark out a retest of prior resistance and the 200dMA as help, however I don’t know if we’re going to be granted such a possibility. If not, I’d be searching for a day by day shut above $1.30 after which look to lengthy the subsequent pull-back for the vary play again into $2.
Turning to SUSHI/BTC, we are able to see that in contrast to the Greenback pair that is nonetheless capped by trendline resistance from the 2021 highs, however weekly construction is now bullish and value is consolidating above prior resistance at 2700 satoshis. Clearly, the important thing right here for bulls is to carry this degree as help after which see a excessive quantity breakout above the trendline, reclaiming the Might 2022 lows at 3900 satoshis as help within the course of. If and after we see that, little doubt the start of SUSHI’s subsequent bull cycle is underway, in my opinion. If this trendline caps value right here nonetheless and we transfer again beneath 2700, I believe we see the all-time lows retested, with a deviation and reclaim of 1830 being the golden alternative and certain the spring for the subsequent cycle to start. Let’s see how issues unfold…
LayerAI:
LAI/USD
Every day:
Worth: $0.0124 (33 satoshis)
Market Cap: $3.951mn
Ideas: Lastly, let’s check out LayerAI – a microcap that has began wanting very promising, notably given the AI narrative that’s certain to develop in 2024.
If we have a look at LAI/USD, we cam see that value misplaced 97% of its worth from the all-time excessive again in March into an all-time low at $0.005 in October, then rallying off that low to reclaim the June help at $0.0082 just a few weeks in the past on rising quantity. Worth additionally closed above trendline resistance, turning it into help, and has since been consolidating between $0.0082 as help and resistance at $0.012, the place the 200dMA can also be sat. We’ve day by day bullish construction right here additionally, and I’ve been shopping for inside this vary the previous week, wanting so as to add on acceptance above $0.014, with a view to carry for a full cycle (new all-time highs seemingly, for my part). Invalidation is a detailed again beneath $0.0082.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be at liberty to go away any feedback or questions beneath, or electronic mail me immediately at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
