Market Outlook #248 (third December 2023)
Hiya, and welcome to the 248th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s submit, I can be masking Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Oasis Community, Amp and Unibot.
As ever, if in case you have any requests for subsequent week, ship them throughout.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $39,449
Market Cap: $771.620bn
Ideas: If we start by BTC/USD on the weekly timeframe, we are able to see that worth is ready to shut the week at recent yearly highs, in addition to highs of the week, on comparable quantity to the prior three weeks, having rallied off the open at $37.4k into help turned resistance right here at $39.6k. This continues to look promising for larger costs, to be trustworthy – momentum nonetheless seems sturdy and we’ve simply closed by multi-week resistance. Taking a look at subsequent week, I might count on this squeeze to proceed into $42k, the place there may be prone to be way more resistance given the confluence. If we do see worth push up into that stage, I can be seeking to hedge some spot publicity and look to take away the hedge after we settle for above that stage. For draw back danger, any wick up above $39.6k in the direction of $42k and subsequent shut again inside $39.6k would start to appear like a neighborhood high to me, from which level we are able to begin searching for shorts probably again so far as $33k to filter out all of those current untapped lows. That is clearly assuming we do get that high formation within the subsequent week or two beneath $42k. Invalidation on any brief publicity is clearly acceptance above $42k, however till we appear like a high has fashioned I might not rush to fade the primary weekly shut by multi-week consolidation.
Turning to the day by day, we are able to see how momentum had reset and is now curling larger once more as worth has damaged by resistance at $38k and turned it into help on this timeframe, which is tremendous promising for December price-action, for my part. If we are able to maintain above $38k early subsequent week, I might count on worth to only hold pushing up with no actual resistance between $39.6k and $42k. If, nonetheless, we deviate above $39.6k early subsequent week after which break and shut again inside $38k, that might appear like the $42k stage is getting front-run and I might turn out to be much more cautious about lengthy publicity. Not a lot else so as to add right here while construction seems like this…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $2,163 (0.0548 BTC)
Market Cap: $260.285bn
Ideas: If we start by ETH/USD, on the weekly we are able to see that worth rallied off resistance turned help at $2037 – a stage which worth had beforehand been chopping round for weeks. From the weekly open, worth discovered help at that stage and has rallied into new yearly highs at $2190, set to shut the week proper across the prior yearly highs at $2170. This seems very very similar to the start of a breakout from this long-term resistance stage for ETH, significantly after we think about how $2037 additionally acted as very sturdy resistance in August 2022 and July 2023, with worth solely deviating above that after since Might 2022’s capitulation occasion. This sturdy push off that stage and break of recent yearly highs signifies a brand new vary enlargement, for my part, as I’ve been awaiting. If we are able to flip $2170 into help subsequent week I believe we see ETH/USD push into $2426 later in December earlier than any additional resistance is discovered. Clearly, if we wick above $2190 subsequent week, making a recent yearly excessive, then reject and shut again inside $2170, that might look somewhat extra bearish and we may think about {that a} deviation has fashioned. However till that occurs, this seems prepared for a brand new vary.
Taking a look at ETH/BTC, once more we proceed to consolidated above 0.0533 and beneath the 200wMA at 0.0557, however worth is ready to shut proper round that resistance stage as soon as once more. As I discussed final week, while we’re on this tight vary, there may be little to do, however after we see worth both shut by 0.0533 and switch that help into resistance or shut above 0.0557 and switch the 200wMA into help, then we are able to take a look at find out how to play ETH for the foreseeable future. Within the former situation, naturally we’d look to hedge lengthy publicity or open brief publicity, in anticipation of draw back; within the latter, we expect to see the pair rally in the direction of multi-year trendline resistance, subsequently outperforming for a interval. Easy.
Solana:
SOL/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
SOL/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $63.45 (0.00161 BTC)
Market Cap: $26.953bn
Ideas: Starting with SOL/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that worth is discovering help above prior resistance at $53.60 and is discovering resistance at $62, marginally beneath the place the pair is ready to shut this week. This vary has held for 3 weeks, with weekly momentum not but exhibiting any divergence, and while we proceed to carry above $53.60 I’m inclined to count on larger costs from this vary. If subsequent week see the pair flip this resistance into help above $64, I believe we see one other leg larger into that vary between $75-82. If, nonetheless, we at any level shut the weekly beneath $53.60 within the subsequent couple of weeks, I might count on $48 to be retested beneath because the final stage of help earlier than a a lot deeper pullback turns into doable in the direction of $36. Dropping into the day by day, we are able to see how momentum has reset now throughout this consolidation, and if we are able to begin pushing by $64 I might count on momentum to hold this ahead as soon as once more, with $68 as minor resistance earlier than $75 comes into play. The bearish situation right here subsequent week could be a deviation above $68 adopted by rejection and an in depth again beneath $61; in that situation, I might search for intraweek shorts in the direction of $54, with a view to hedge down there and reopen on acceptance by that stage, with $48 then the last word goal for that brief. Beneath $48, what occurs…
Turning to SOL/BTC, we are able to see how worth is consolidating above prior resistance at 0.00137 and the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market. We’ve resistance overhead at 0.00162, the place worth is presently sat, and any acceptance above this opens up continuation into the 38.2% stage at 0.00208, the place there may be additionally prior help, for my part. So probably 15-20% extra upside from right here if this resistance provides means. If we’re topping out right here, nonetheless, subsequent week ought to see worth shut again beneath 0.00137, making it extra possible we pull-back into that untested stage at 0.00112. If we drop into the day by day, we are able to see how day by day construction is popping bullish once more after the transient pullback however there may be resistance proper right here that’s proving troublesome. I believe so long as the pair continues to kind these decrease timeframe higher-lows into this resistance we’re prone to see it give means and switch into reclaimed help; from there, I believe we take out 0.0018 and squeeze into 0.002, the place there can be way more resistance.
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
MATIC/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $0.811 (2058 satoshis)
Market Cap: $7.547bn
Ideas: If we start by MATIC/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that worth has retraced off resistance at $1 into the 200wMA at $0.77 and located help this previous week, rallying off that stage into $0.82, the place it’s set to shut. Weekly construction is bullish however that $1 space has an enormous quantity of confluence for resistance, and so it’s hardly stunning worth didn’t breach it on the primary try following this rally. What bulls needs to see right here is that the pair kind a macro higher-low now above the reclaimed help at $0.62 – even when we drop farther from right here into that stage weekly construction would nonetheless be intact if we kind that higher-low in that space. From there, we’d count on one other try at a $1 breakout, above which there’s little resistance into $1.30, the place we discover confluence of prior help, the 38.2% retracement of the bear market and the 78.6% retracement of the 2023 downtrend. Dropping into the day by day, we are able to see how worth is definitely forming some respectable construction right here above the 200dMA and above reclaimed help at $0.74, with day by day construction having turned bullish on this most up-to-date push larger. If this construction holds subsequent week and one other larger low varieties, I don’t assume we see that deeper retracement earlier than one other try on the $1 breakout. Let’s see how the week unfolds…
Turning to MATIC/BTC, we are able to see that, following weekly construction turning bullish, worth rallied by the 200wMA into 2704 satoshis and rejected, closing again beneath that stage and retracing now into reclaimed help at 2000 satoshis; a significant historic stage. If we are able to kind a higher-low on this space, construction seems completely effective for continuation larger within the coming weeks. Nonetheless, shut again beneath 2000 satoshis and this rally feels a lot much less legitimate, with 1800 satoshi help coming into view for a sweep. Maintain right here and I believe the subsequent leg takes the pair in the direction of 3200 satoshis for the hole fill. Turning to the day by day, we are able to see how worth faked out above the 200dMA earlier than rejecting and retraced again inside that long-term worth space between 1900-2100 satoshis, and for now we’re seeing help maintain right here. If we are able to now reclaim 2100 as help, I might count on to see 2450 retested, with acceptance above that resulting in the subsequent leg larger into 2950-3230.
Oasis Community:
ROSE/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ROSE/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $0.0849 (215 satoshis)
Market Cap: $428.513mn
Ideas: Starting with ROSE/USD, we are able to see that worth continued to rally larger this previous week, pushing past prior resistance at $0.08 into $0.088, with worth set to shut the week marginally beneath that stage. We’re trying on the pair inches away from a breakout past the 2023 highs, with any acceptance subsequent week above $0.088 opening up a brand new vary: above that stage, there may be zero resistance into $0.116 and I’m anticipating that vary to get stuffed in swiftly, significantly following a multi-week consolidation beneath resistance. Clearly, if we deviate above that top subsequent week and begin breaking down and shutting again beneath it, the image seems somewhat completely different. For now, this very a lot seems prepared for continuation larger, with $0.18 the first goal past $0.116.
Turning to ROSE/BTC, we are able to see that worth is now above reclaimed help at 203, with solely prior help at 219 satoshis appearing as resistance earlier than an enormous vary opens up, offering confluence for the Greenback pair. If we are able to shut the weekly firmly above 220 subsequent week, I might count on ROSE to push in the direction of 280 satoshis in December, with acceptance by that stage opening up the primary main resistance stage at 420 – the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market. Dropping into the day by day, we are able to see how following that multi-week consolidation above the 200dMA, worth has flipped vary resistance at 203 into help and is now holding that stage; shut again inside that and we’re prone to return to 180 for a retest, however above it I believe we proceed rallying into 270-280 the place there may be way more resistance.
Amp:
AMP/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
AMP/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $0.0025 (6 satoshis)
Market Cap: $141.301mn
Ideas: If we start by AMP/USD, we are able to see that the pair not too long ago fashioned an all-time low at $0.0014 and has since rallied again above help at $0.0018, now consolidating beneath prior help turned resistance at $0.003. While that is promising, significantly when momentum indicators, weekly construction remains to be bearish and the pair remains to be very a lot in a downtrend, in the interim. If we now see a higher-low kind above $0.0018 and worth then rally and settle for again above $0.03 – a key historic stage – then we are able to start thinking about a backside to be in and for additional upside to observe. If that does happen, I might count on the pair to rally off that $0.003 stage as help quickly in the direction of $0.0055. If we see the pair reject this space, nonetheless, and $0.0018 doesn’t maintain, the downtrend persists and recent all-time lows are inevitable. Dropping briefly into the day by day, we are able to see that worth is consolidating between the 360dMA as resistance and the 200dMA as help, with the previous having capped the final main rally, so acceptance above $0.003 can even give us acceptance above a key MA, and a sustained reversal turns into a lot larger chance, for my part.
Turning to AMP/BTC, the pair has very a lot performed out a textbook market cycle, with volatility having utterly diminished and worth now consolidating in a decent vary round all-time lows. If it is a mission you are feeling assured in essentially (it is a reader request, and subsequently I can not touch upon fundamentals right here), this might be precisely the place I might be seeking to construct a spot place to be trustworthy, with a view so as to add above 16 satoshis. Wanting on the day by day, we’re tightly wound proper beneath the 200dMA additionally, with the 360dMA looming overhead above 10 satoshis; clear all of this and it turns into very probably the cyclical backside has fashioned, so for these with much less danger urge for food, awaiting that might be smart.
Unibot:
UNIBOT/USD
Every day:
Value: $62.97 (0.00159 BTC)
Market Cap: $63.399mn
Ideas: Lastly, let’s take a look at a mission I’ve not too long ago purchased a spot place in: UNIBOT.
Taking a look at UNIBOT/USD, we are able to see the pair has solely been buying and selling for just a few months and worth has performed out most of a market cycle at this level, having fashioned an all-time excessive at $226 in August and since been trending decrease, capitulating into $27.77 in November however largely spending time in a variety between help at $43 and resistance at $78. This vary has persevered since mid-September and while worth tried a breakout just a few days in the past, this failed and we are actually retesting $64 as help; if this stage fails, I might count on $51 to be retested as help, the place these on the sidelines may additionally look to construct a place with a weekly shut beneath $40 being my invalidation right here. I’m seeking to maintain this for a full cycle, anticipating recent highs by $226. Into 2024 we go…
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be at liberty to go away any feedback or questions beneath, or e-mail me immediately at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
