Market Outlook #250 (18th December 2023)
Hi there, and welcome to the 250th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s publish, I might be masking Bitcoin, Ethereum, Casper Community, TriasLab, Morpheus Community and Cellframe. I can even be offering a year-end replace to Altcoin Market Cap.
That is the final Outlook for 2023. Have an ideal Christmas and a Comfortable New 12 months and I’ll see you in 2024.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $40,971
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD, from the weekly timeframe we will see that value spent final week contained in the vary of the earlier week, printing an inside week. Given this formation, the very first thing to think about is the potential of inside week failure, which might kind if we take out both final week’s low or its excessive after which shut again inside that weekly vary. Provided that we bought off from final week’s open into the shut again under $42k, and thus our proximity to the weekly vary low (and the broader market outlook), I lean in the direction of the chance of us taking out the weekly low at $40.3k earlier than closing again above it. In that situation, we might anticipate final week’s excessive to get taken out out and value to doubtless proceed to squeeze past $45k, with $48.2k as main resistance past that. If, nevertheless, value closes the week under $40.3k, this situation is invalidated and I might anticipate a deeper pullback from there in the direction of $38k as untested prior resistance.
Dropping into the day by day, we will see that day by day construction is now bearish, given the break and shut under the $43k swing-low and subsequent lower-high; nevertheless, that wasn’t a lot of a swing level, so while that is technically bearish construction I’m not notably satisfied by it as of but. If we had been to now shut the day by day by means of $40k, that appears to be like way more convincing for short-term bearishness, with first targets of a trendline retest and the $38k prior resistance, with $33k as the key degree under that if we’re to take out all of these untapped lows alongside the trendline earlier than bottoming out. Nonetheless, if we will proceed to carry right here above $40k (or deviate this low and shut again above it), I might search for a push again above $43k earlier than favouring additional upside; between these ranges I don’t have a lot of a bias. Shut again above $43k and I do suppose we proceed to push increased into $48k…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $2132 (0.05203 BTC)
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at ETH/USD on the weekly timeframe, we will see that value retraced all the beneficial properties of the prior weekly growth final week, promoting off from the open again into reclaimed help at $2172. Worth depraved under the prior weekly low into $2137, which held as help, with the pair closing again above $2172. Truthfully, that is very a lot giving blended indicators: we’ve got erasure of the earlier week’s beneficial properties following growth past yearly highs, however we’ve got a sweep of the weekly low into main help too. Principally, chop continues. What I’m taking a look at right here is the place we will proceed to carry above $2172 this week; shut above it after sweeping final week’s low and I believe we’ve got the makings of a backside earlier than one other run at $2425. If, nevertheless, we shut the week under $2137, I believe we’re prone to see $1850 taken out earlier than a backside is discovered. Wanting on the day by day, we will see how day by day construction appears to be like set to show bearish right here if we do break and shut under $2137, and if that’s confirmed we will anticipate $2036 to be examined later this week, however with way more help down round $1850. Nonetheless, as talked about earlier, sweep this space of prior resistance after which climb again above $2172 later this week and I believe shorts get trapped and we squeeze again in the direction of yearly highs.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we will see that value continues to cut round between help at 0.051 and resistance round 0.055. There may be little else to be added right here given the narrative has been the identical inside this vary for weeks now. After we break and shut both facet of the vary, I wouldn’t be fast to fade it.
Casper Community:
CSPR/USD
Day by day:
CSPR/BTC
Day by day:
Worth: $0.038 (92 satoshis)
Ideas: Provided that each pairs look nearly an identical right here for CSPR, let’s give attention to the Greenback pair.
CSPR/USD, we will see that it has been range-bound for 585 days at this level, with a lot of that being spent above $0.025 and under $0.055, aside from a short fakeout past that vary resistance earlier this yr. We now have bullish construction right here on the day by day however have bought off from prior help up close to the prime quality, with value now set to retest the 200dMA at $0.037 as help. So long as we now maintain above reclaimed help at $0.035 and the 200dMA, forming a higher-low, I might anticipate to see one other push on the vary resistance from right here up close to $0.055. If it is a undertaking you have an interest in (reader request, FYI), I might think about this pretty much as good an entry as any provided that your invalidation right here might be as tight at $0.031; closing under that will invalidate all of this latest construction and we’d doubtless return in the direction of the underside of the vary from there. Wanting forward, the disbelief section is clear – shut above $0.073 and I believe this begins its bull cycle, with $0.22 as main resistance past that.
TriasLab:
TRIAS/USD
Day by day:
TRIAS/BTC
Day by day:
Worth: $5.57 (13,579 satoshis)
Ideas: Once more, given how comparable these pairs look right here, let’s give attention to the Greenback pair, because the construction can be a bit cleaner.
TRIAS/USD, we will see that value was in a protracted interval of growth off the underside earlier than spending a lot of 2023 in consolidation under $4.15, faking out above that degree as soon as. This lengthy consolidation vary led to cost winding tighter with the 360dMA performing as help and value then reclaiming the 200dMA as help in October. Since, the pair has rallied in the direction of $4.15, consolidated between the 200dMA and that degree and most just lately damaged out sharply past that resistance, breaking contemporary yearly highs by means of $5. Given this market construction, I might completely not be fading this, as a substitute contemplating this doubtless the start of the subsequent main leg increased for TRIAS. If we will now maintain above $4.15, I might anticipate $6.40 to offer manner and value to make its manner in the direction of trendline resistance and reclaimed resistance up close to $12 earlier than the subsequent native high types.
Morpheus Community:
MNW/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
MNW/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $1.08 (2659 satoshis)
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at MNW/USD on the weekly, we will see that value continues to be capped by trendline resistance from the all-time highs, having now rejected under the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market at prior help ~$1.46. We’re at present discovering help above $0.94, as has been the case since late final yr, however to be sincere this isn’t a very engaging long-term chart at current. We now have value discovering help above the 200wMA in Nov final yr, then rallying to contemporary yearly highs into $2.45, confirming a weekly uptrend, however then rejecting, erasing the beneficial properties again into the 200wMA after which rallying way more weakly off that very same help into the trendline. If that $0.94 help goes, this pair returns to bearish construction on the weekly, in order that’s at present your most essential degree. Till it will get a weekly shut by means of that trendline and again above $1.50, I wouldn’t have an interest on this to be sincere – significantly better alternatives available in the market.
MNW/BTC, we will see that the pair may be very a lot nonetheless in a bear cycle at current, with contemporary lows on the newest break and shut under 3264 satoshis. Worth is now sat in no man’s land, with main help under close to 1400 satoshis, and resistance overhead at that 3264 degree. There may be additionally no signal simply but of pattern exhaustion on the weekly timeframe. I really feel like given how just lately this rallied into all-time highs (Nov 2022), will probably be some time but earlier than this one absolutely bottoms out; while most of its value capitulation seems to have occurred, we could must see a interval of flat consolidation earlier than one other cycle can start for MNW.
Cellframe:
CELL/USD
Day by day:
CELL/BTC
Day by day:
Worth: $0.19 (475 satoshis)
Ideas: Once more, very similar to a few different tokens on this publish, CELL’s pairs look very comparable right here and I’m specializing in the Greenback pair, as that can be what I’m basing my long-term place on.
So, taking a look at CELL/USD, we will see that value has retraced following the push above $0.24 into $0.29, returning to reclaimed help above $0.185 and the 200dMA. We stay capped by the long-term trendline resistance, however following the multi-year downtrend we’ve got been consolidating above all-time lows and under $0.37 since mid-2022. I’m very a lot nonetheless in my spot place right here and if I used to be not absolutely allotted I might be shopping for some inside this vary. Invalidation could be contemporary all-time lows, the place I might minimize and await a reclaim or a brand new vary formation. However given the broader market circumstances I believe we usually tend to proceed chopping round right here after which begin reversing sharply when ETH begins outperforming. Above $0.37 the primary bull cycle begins…
Altcoin Market Cap:
ALT/USD
Weekly:
ALT/BTC
Weekly:
Market Cap: $441.2bn
Ideas: Starting with ALT/USD, we will see that the altcoin market has emerged lastly after over 500 days of being range-bound, just lately rallying again by means of the 200wMA, consolidating above it as help after which pushing by means of multi-year resistance at $413bn. We now have pushed into the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market right here at $480bn and rejected, now consolidating inside the prior weekly vary. I might anticipate to see additional consolidation right here after the multi-week rally, however there’s nothing bearish about this on the upper timeframes. So long as we will now maintain above that $400bn space, I might anticipate the subsequent squeeze to open up a wider vary, the place issues will get very attention-grabbing: above $480bn, there isn’t any resistance for alts again into the 38.2% fib and prior help close to $590bn – over 25% increased from right here. That’s the place I might anticipate extra resistance to be discovered for alts and maybe a broader market correction. Disbelief is turning into hope.
ALT/BTC, we will see that regardless of some beneficial properties in Greenback values of alts – and large beneficial properties on-chain in non-ETH ecosystems – we’ve got largely been trending decrease in opposition to BTC for over a yr. Most just lately, alts depraved under help at 10.5mn into 9.6mn and bounced, with pattern exhaustion now showing on this timeframe. We additionally noticed the market shut above trendline resistance, marginally – that is all indicative of a interval of altcoin outperformance being imminent, which is confluent with the Greenback valuation of the altcoin market. If we will reclaim 11.4mn as help right here, I believe that would be the catalyst for alts outperforming BTC into the 200wMA and prior multi-year vary help up close to 13.3mn BTC.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook – and the ultimate one in all 2023!
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to depart any feedback or questions under, or electronic mail me immediately at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
