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Trumponomics #8: Finding On-Chain Certainty in the Chaos of “Trumponomics”: Analyzing Three Types of Yield-Bearing Crypto Assets | by OKG Research | The Capital | Apr, 2025

April 27, 2025
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Because the Federal Reserve started its rate of interest hike cycle in 2022, the idea of “on-chain rates of interest” has regularly entered the mainstream. Confronted with a risk-free fee of 4–5% in the actual world, crypto buyers have began reexamining the yield sources and danger buildings of on-chain property. A brand new narrative has quietly emerged — yield-bearing crypto property — that seeks to create monetary merchandise on-chain to “compete with the macro rate of interest setting.”

Nevertheless, the yield sources of those property differ broadly. From money flows generated by the protocol itself to yields primarily based on exterior incentives, and even the incorporation of off-chain rate of interest programs, the underlying buildings mirror vastly totally different sustainability and danger pricing mechanisms. We are able to roughly categorize yield-bearing property in decentralized purposes (DApps) into three varieties: exogenous yields, endogenous yields, and people linked to real-world property (RWA).

The rise of exogenous yields is a mirrored image of the early progress logic of DeFi — the place, within the absence of mature person demand and actual money movement, the market substituted with “incentive illusions.” Very like early shared experience platforms that used subsidies to draw customers, after Compound launched “liquidity mining,” ecosystems like SushiSwap, Balancer, Curve, Avalanche, and Arbitrum launched huge token incentives to purchase person consideration and locked property.

Nevertheless, these subsidies are primarily short-term operations the place capital markets pay for progress metrics, quite than a sustainable income mannequin. They grew to become the usual for the chilly startup of recent protocols — whether or not Layer 2, modular blockchains, or LSDfi and SocialFi — the motivation logic is similar: counting on new funds or token inflation, resembling a “Ponzi” construction. Platforms use excessive returns to draw deposits, then delay payout by means of complicated “unlocking guidelines.” These annualized yields of lots of or 1000’s of % had been usually simply tokens “printed” by the platform.

The Terra collapse in 2022 was a chief instance: the ecosystem supplied as much as 20% annual returns on UST stablecoin deposits by means of the Anchor protocol, attracting many customers. The returns had been primarily depending on exterior subsidies (Luna Basis Reserve and token rewards), not actual earnings from the ecosystem.

From historic expertise, as soon as exterior incentives diminish, giant quantities of sponsored tokens are bought, damaging person confidence, usually resulting in a downward spiral in TVL (Complete Worth Locked) and token costs. Based on Dune knowledge, following the DeFi Summer season of 2022, roughly 30% of DeFi tasks noticed their market worth drop by over 90%, usually on account of extreme subsidies.

If buyers are to seek out “secure money flows,” they have to be cautious about whether or not an actual worth creation mechanism exists behind the yields. Promising future inflation to pay immediately’s returns is finally not a sustainable enterprise mannequin.

Merely put, protocols generate earnings by means of “actual actions” after which redistribute that earnings to customers. They don’t depend on issuing tokens to draw customers, nor do they rely upon subsidies or exterior injections of capital. As an alternative, they earn income by means of precise enterprise actions akin to lending curiosity, transaction charges, or penalties from default liquidations. These earnings streams are considerably much like “dividends” in conventional finance, and are also known as “dividend-like” crypto money flows.

The important thing function of this sort of yield is its closed-loop and sustainability: the logic of producing earnings is evident, and the construction is more healthy. So long as the protocol is operational and has customers, it is going to generate income with out counting on market scorching cash or inflation incentives to keep up operations.

Due to this fact, understanding how a protocol “creates worth” permits for a extra correct judgment of the knowledge of its yields. We are able to categorize this sort of earnings into three predominant archetypes:

Lending Unfold Mannequin: This is likely one of the commonest and simply understood fashions in early DeFi. Customers deposit funds into lending protocols like Aave or Compound, which match debtors with lenders. The protocol earns the unfold between borrowing and lending charges. That is primarily the identical because the “deposit-loan” mannequin in conventional banks — curiosity from debtors is partially distributed to lenders as income. This mechanism is clear and environment friendly, however its yield is carefully tied to market sentiment. When general danger urge for food declines or market liquidity shrinks, rates of interest and yields additionally are likely to fall.Charge-sharing Mannequin: This yield mechanism is nearer to a profit-sharing construction in conventional firms, the place shareholders or particular companions obtain returns primarily based on income distribution. On this framework, the protocol shares a part of its working earnings (akin to transaction charges) with customers who present sources to help the protocol, akin to liquidity suppliers (LPs) or token stakers.

For instance, decentralized exchanges like Uniswap distribute a portion of the transaction charges to customers who present liquidity. In 2024, Aave V3 on Ethereum’s mainnet supplied an annualized return of 5%-8% for stablecoin liquidity swimming pools, whereas AAVE stakers might earn over 10% annualized returns throughout sure durations. These revenues come solely from the protocol’s inside financial actions, akin to lending curiosity and transaction charges, with out counting on exterior subsidies.

In comparison with the “lending unfold” mannequin, the “fee-sharing” mannequin is very depending on the protocol’s market exercise. In different phrases, its returns are straight tied to the protocol’s enterprise quantity — the extra trades, the upper the rewards; the less trades, the decrease the earnings. Due to this fact, its stability and talent to face up to cyclical dangers are sometimes not as sturdy because the lending mannequin.

3. Protocol Service Mannequin: That is probably the most structurally modern sort of endogenous earnings in crypto finance, with logic much like how conventional infrastructure service suppliers cost purchasers for key providers.

For instance, EigenLayer makes use of a “re-staking” mechanism to offer safety help for different programs and receives compensation for doing so. This yield doesn’t depend on lending curiosity or transaction charges however is derived from the market pricing of the protocol’s service capabilities. It displays the market worth of blockchain infrastructure as a “public good.” These returns are extra various and should embrace token rewards, governance rights, and even future unrealized returns, showcasing sturdy structural innovation and long-term potential.

In conventional industries, this may be in comparison with cloud service suppliers (like AWS) charging enterprises for computing and safety providers, or monetary infrastructure establishments (akin to custodians, clearinghouses, and score companies) offering belief ensures for programs and incomes income. These providers could circuitously take part in end-user transactions however are important to the general system’s functioning.

On-Chain Actual Curiosity Charges: The Rise of RWA and Curiosity-Bearing Stablecoins

Increasingly capital available in the market is now in search of a extra secure and predictable return mechanism: on-chain property anchored to real-world rates of interest. The core logic behind that is to hyperlink on-chain stablecoins or crypto property to off-chain low-risk monetary devices, akin to short-term authorities bonds, cash market funds, or institutional credit score, thus sustaining the flexibleness of crypto property whereas acquiring “certainty in rates of interest from the normal monetary world.” Consultant tasks embrace MakerDAO’s allocation to T-Payments, Ondo Finance’s launch of OUSG (linked to BlackRock ETFs), Matrixdock’s SBTB, and Franklin Templeton’s tokenized cash market fund FOBXX. These protocols try and “import” the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rates of interest onto the blockchain as a foundational yield construction. Which means that:

On the identical time, interest-bearing stablecoins, as a by-product type of RWA, have additionally began to take middle stage. In contrast to conventional stablecoins, these property aren’t passively pegged to the greenback however actively embed off-chain yields into the tokens themselves. Typical examples embrace Mountain Protocol’s USDM and Ondo Finance’s USDY, which offer each day curiosity and derive their yield from short-term authorities bonds. By investing in U.S. Treasury payments, USDY provides customers a secure return, with an rate of interest near 4%, which is far greater than the 0.5% fee of conventional financial savings accounts.

These tasks purpose to reshape the logic of utilizing the “digital greenback,” making it extra like an on-chain “interest-bearing account.”

With the connectivity of RWA, RWA+PayFi can also be a future state of affairs value watching: straight embedding secure yield property into cost instruments, thus breaking the binary division between “property” and “liquidity.” On the one hand, customers can get pleasure from interest-bearing returns whereas holding cryptocurrencies, and alternatively, cost eventualities don’t have to sacrifice capital effectivity. Merchandise just like the USDC computerized yield account on Coinbase’s Base L2 (much like a “USDC as a checking account”) not solely enhance the attractiveness of cryptocurrency in precise transactions but additionally open up new use instances for stablecoins — remodeling them from “{dollars} in an account” to “capital in lively circulation.”

The evolution of crypto “yield-bearing property” displays the market’s gradual return to rationality and a redefinition of “sustainable returns.” Initially pushed by excessive inflation incentives and governance token subsidies, many protocols now deal with self-sustaining mechanisms and integrating off-chain yield curves. The design is shifting away from a “capital-chasing” section, in direction of extra clear and refined danger pricing. Particularly with macro rates of interest remaining excessive, crypto programs aiming to compete within the international capital market should construct stronger “return rationality” and “liquidity matching logic.” For buyers in search of secure returns, the next three indicators can successfully assess the sustainability of yield-bearing property:

Is the supply of returns inherently sustainable?Really aggressive yield-bearing property ought to generate returns from the protocol’s core actions, akin to lending curiosity or transaction charges. If the returns rely primarily on short-term subsidies or incentives, it turns into like a “sport of musical chairs”: so long as the subsidies proceed, returns stay; as soon as they cease, funds depart. This kind of short-term “subsidy” conduct, if changed into long-term incentives, can deplete venture funds and simply result in a downward spiral of lowering TVL (Complete Worth Locked) and token costs.Is the construction clear?On-chain belief comes from transparency. When buyers transfer away from the acquainted setting of conventional finance, backed by intermediaries akin to banks, how can they assess the scenario? Is the movement of funds on-chain clear? Are curiosity distributions verifiable? Is there a danger of concentrated custody? If these points aren’t clarified, it leads to a “black-box” operation, exposing the system’s vulnerabilities. A monetary product with a transparent construction, publicly seen on-chain, and traceable mechanisms is the true underlying assure.Do the returns justify the real-world alternative value?With the Federal Reserve sustaining excessive rates of interest, if the returns of on-chain merchandise are decrease than Treasury invoice yields, it is going to be tough to draw rational capital. By anchoring on-chain returns to real-world benchmarks like T-Payments, the returns turn out to be not solely extra secure however might additionally function an “rate of interest reference” on-chain.

Nevertheless, even “yield-bearing property” are by no means really risk-free. Regardless of their secure return buildings, they nonetheless require warning relating to technical, regulatory, and liquidity dangers inside the on-chain framework. From whether or not the liquidation logic is ample, as to whether protocol governance is centralized, as to whether the asset custody preparations behind RWA (Actual-World Belongings) are clear and traceable, these components decide whether or not so-called “sure returns” could be reliably realized.

Furthermore, the marketplace for yield-bearing property could characterize a restructuring of the on-chain “cash market construction.” In conventional finance, the cash market performs a central position in funding pricing by means of its rate of interest anchoring mechanism. Immediately, the on-chain world is regularly establishing its personal “rate of interest benchmarks” and “risk-free returns,” making a deeper and extra structured monetary order.



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Tags: AnalyzingAprassetsCapitalCertaintyChaoscryptoFindingOKGOnchainResearchTrumponomicstypesYieldBearing
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