By Lale Akoner
Could 21, 2025
US April’s CPI report got here in softer than anticipated, however we’re not able to name it a turning level. Sure, the headline quantity cooled thanks largely to cheaper oil and the largest grocery worth drop since 2020 however the particulars are much less comforting. Housing prices remained stubbornly excessive, and super-core providers (excluding shelter) climbed. These are the sticky parts that the Fed watches intently, they usually’re not giving up floor simply. Retail traders are more likely to view the latest knowledge as a short-term optimistic which can assist danger belongings – particularly equities and rate-sensitive sectors resembling actual property and tech.
In our view although, it’s nonetheless too early to evaluate the inflationary impression of latest tariffs. The modest pass-through in April possible displays pre-tariff stock being cleared, not a scarcity of pricing energy. That buffer could not final. Over the following few months, we’ll get a clearer image of whether or not tariffs feed into client costs or set off substitution results and whether or not commerce tensions find yourself hitting development more durable than inflation.
For now, this combined bag validates the Fed’s cautious stance. There’s no urgency to chop, however no clear case for tightening both. Markets could cheer the softer print, however we nonetheless suppose that the inflation outlook stays unsure.
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