Do you know that Bitcoin’s worst month is September…however that it’s finest month is October? The Every day Breakdown digs into BTC seasonality.
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What’s Occurring?
Bitcoin has achieved properly this yr, up greater than 20% to date in 2025. Nonetheless, bulls could also be rising a bit impatient with the current worth motion. After a four-month rally, BTC fell 6.5% final month and is struggling for traction to date this month.
Traditionally, September has been Bitcoin’s weakest month, with a median lack of 3.2% over the previous decade. It’s one in every of solely three months with a destructive common return throughout that span, alongside January (-0.2%) and August (-0.1%).
However October has traditionally flipped the script. It stands as Bitcoin’s strongest month, averaging a 22.5% achieve over the previous ten years. In seven of these years, Bitcoin posted returns of at the very least 11%, and solely as soon as — in 2018 — did it end the month within the crimson. Zooming out additional, This autumn tends to be Bitcoin’s finest quarter.
In the meantime, crypto ETF flows have been strong this summer season. In July, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs mixed for over $16.8 billion in inflows — almost doubling their next-best month-to-month complete. August noticed a divergence: Ethereum ETFs pulled in $7.7 billion, whereas Bitcoin ETFs skilled outflows of $750 million. That shift suggests some traders could also be rotating out of Bitcoin and into Ethereum, however doesn’t point out whether or not that’s a long-term growth.
With robust technical momentum — extra on that in a minute — rising institutional adoption, and bettering regulatory readability, crypto’s long-term outlook stays constructive. Whereas seasonal weak spot could create short-term turbulence, traders could view any pullbacks as potential shopping for alternatives — not warning indicators.
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The Setup — Bitcoin
Whereas BTC has been chopping round after its surge in June, the $105K to $110K vary has been important over the previous yr. Earlier than June, this was a key resistance zone and as soon as Bitcoin broke out, it’s been key assist. That’s wholesome worth motion.
Offered that this space continues to carry as assist, the technical construction stays constructive. If this space stays assist, then bulls may search for an eventual rebound again to the $120K to $125K space. Ought to assist fail, then BTC could dip to the $97K to $100K space and the rising 50-week shifting common.
Choices
For traders who can’t commerce or aren’t comfy buying and selling cryptocurrencies outright, they’ll contemplate ETFs for BTC and ETH. On the BTC entrance, IBIT stays the biggest ETF by belongings, whereas additionally supporting choices buying and selling.
Bulls can make the most of calls or name spreads to invest on upside, whereas bears can use places or places unfold to invest on draw back. In both case, traders could think about using ample time till expiration.
For these seeking to study extra about choices, contemplate visiting the eToro Academy.
What Wall Road’s Watching
QQQ
The QQQ ETF hit one other all-time excessive on Monday because the Nasdaq 100 continues to energy larger. Chip shares, Apple, Oracle, and Tesla helped lead the cost on the day, regardless of a combined day general in tech — with 4 of the Magazine 7 shares decrease on the session. Try the chart for the QQQ.
GOLD
Costs for gold rallied once more, leaping greater than 1.5% on Monday and are larger once more this morning. That firmly has gold costs in new file excessive territory, because the metallic has rallied virtually 4% prior to now three days. Like gold, silver has been on the transfer too — now over $44 an oz — and merchants are maintaining an in depth eye on its 2011 file excessive close to $50. Curious traders can take a look at the GLD ETF and the SLV ETF for extra info.
Disclaimer:
Please observe that because of market volatility, a few of the costs could have already been reached and eventualities performed out.
