Analyst Weekly, October 13, 2025
China Tensions Rising Once more
What Occurred: Beijing expanded export restrictions on rare-earth supplies crucial to AI and semiconductor manufacturing, launched an antitrust probe into Qualcomm, and launched new port charges forward of US measures on giant Chinese language vessels (efficient Oct. 14). In response, the US President threatened tariffs of as much as 100% on Chinese language imports and signaled further export controls on delicate applied sciences.
Funding Takeaway: In our view, current actions level to renewed friction somewhat than collapse within the US–China commerce dialogue. Whereas excessive tariffs may in the end weigh on tariff revenues and holiday-season provide, each governments seem targeted on strategic positioning somewhat than outright disengagement. Further measures on plastics, chips, and doubtlessly energy-linked commerce (China’s oil dealings with Russia) may comply with.
Quick time period: Rising coverage uncertainty might preserve export-heavy and China-exposed sectors underneath strain ({hardware}, autos, delivery).
Medium time period: US high quality and domestically oriented equities stay higher positioned amid a extra self-sufficient industrial coverage.
Long run: Industrial self-sufficiency, semiconductor independence, and supply-chain resilience stay central themes.
Coverage-driven Industrial Revival
Washington’s “sovereign wealth” like investments, focusing on US Metal, Intel, MP Supplies, Lithium Americas, and Trilogy Metals, sign a structural pivot towards home manufacturing of crucial supplies and chips.
Funding Takeaway: Lengthy-duration assist for US metals, rare-earth, and semiconductor supply-chain names as these companies turn out to be central to nationwide security-linked manufacturing. Corporations impacted:
US Metal (X) – metal capability and reshoring narrative.
MP Supplies (MP), Lithium Americas (LAC), Trilogy Metals (TMET) – crucial minerals, uncommon earths, and EV-supply inputs.
Intel (INTC) – CHIPS Act capital infusion and geopolitical desire over Asia-based friends.
Earnings Preview: Main S&P 500 Corporations Reporting October 13–17, 2025
The week of October 13, 2025 marks a key kickoff to the third-quarter 2025 earnings season. A slew of main US firms, spanning banking, healthcare, shopper, and industrial sectors, are set to report outcomes. Buyers will likely be dissecting these reviews for clues on financial well being and company-specific developments.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): A “rebound in funding banking” is anticipated to elevate earnings. Buyers will give attention to web curiosity revenue (NII) which has been boosted by greater rates of interest and whether or not administration raises its full-year NII steering after robust good points
Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC): Buyers will search for any change to NII steering given charge strikes and deposit developments in Q3. The road will give attention to any commentary on lowering expense ranges.
The Goldman Sachs Group (GS): Goldman’s backlog of offers and commentary on the M&A outlook will likely be key; buyers need to know if the Q3 surge is sustainable or “one-off.”
BlackRock Inc. (BLK): Fund flows are the lifeblood of BlackRock’s progress. Any commentary on investor preferences (e.g. transferring into bond funds given greater yields) will likely be invaluable.
Citigroup Inc. (C): Citi’s multi-year revamp means it’s incurring fees to streamline administration layers and divest sure items. Buyers are laser-focused on expense management: will the Q3 outcomes present effectivity enhancing?
Financial institution of America Corp. (BAC): Like friends, BofA faces inflationary pressures on prices (wages, tech spend). Any point out of effectivity enhancements or areas of price self-discipline (e.g. department community optimization) will likely be welcomed.
PNC Monetary Providers (PNC): Regional banks in 2025 have confronted strain from clients reallocating deposits to higher-yielding choices (so-called “deposit beta” strain). Buyers will watch how PNC’s deposit balances and prices fared in Q3. Credit score high quality is one other focus.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Buyers will give attention to administration’s commentary across the firm’s pharmaceutical pipeline momentum and on sustained MedTech progress.
Progressive Corp. (PGR): Insurer more likely to point out that it’s going to preserve pricing self-discipline even after gaining over some extent of auto insurance coverage market share, and can carefully monitor claims price developments (like auto restore inflation and disaster losses) to maintain its superior underwriting efficiency.
United Airways (UAL): Buyers will likely be tuned into the provider’s price steering; United expects a tailwind from decrease gasoline costs serving to Q3 outcomes.
American Specific (AXP): Buyers will give attention to whether or not American Specific can maintain robust premium card spending and mortgage progress whereas sustaining credit score high quality.
Crypto Received Crunched
Final Friday, crypto confronted certainly one of its ugliest hours ever. Bitcoin plunged 15% in about an hour, Ethereum slid 20%, and a few altcoins obtained halved. A record-breaking liquidation occasion that noticed practically $20 billion in leveraged positions worn out in simply sooner or later.
What sparked it:
Tariff tensions between the US and China lit the fuse, however the explosion got here from inside. The market was over-leveraged and paper-thin on liquidity.
The way it unraveled:
Perpetual contracts, the go-to weapon for merchants, turned the set off. As leveraged longs obtained liquidated, automated promote orders snowballed, wiping out over half of world open curiosity in underneath two hours.
The massive image:
It’s noteworthy that regardless of the size of the occasion, Bitcoin has already recovered to round $115K on Sunday, reflecting its growing resilience and market maturity.
Takeaway for buyers:
Avoid devices with out actual depth.
Desire direct, clear, and custodied publicity.
Deal with crypto as infrastructure, not a fast gamble.
SPDR S&P Financial institution ETF Defends Quick-term Help Zone
The SPDR S&P Financial institution ETF slipped by practically 1% final week, extending its shedding streak to a 3rd consecutive week. Nevertheless, the bulls managed to defend the honest worth hole between 56.41 and 57.36, a zone that emerged from the sharp rally in August and now serves as a key assist space.
So long as this vary will not be sustainably damaged to the draw back, the uptrend construction, characterised by greater highs and better lows in current months, stays intact. From a technical perspective, this implies {that a} continuation of the pattern is the most certainly situation.
For the uptrend to renew, nonetheless, patrons might want to overcome the honest worth hole between 60.93 and 61.38, an vital resistance zone the place the ETF has already failed a number of instances. The upcoming earnings season will probably decide whether or not a brand new breakout try is on the horizon or if the assist zone will likely be examined once more.
SPDR S&P Financial institution ETF, weekly chart. Supply: eToro
Gold: File Excessive and Overheating on the Similar Time?
Gold rose by 2.75% final week, marking a brand new all-time excessive. At one level, the worth even climbed above $4,000, leaving little doubt in regards to the power of the uptrend.
Nevertheless, the short-term upward impulse now seems to be vastly overstretched. It was already the eighth consecutive week of good points, and the RSI, at over 81, is flashing clear indicators of overheating. Because the starting of the yr, gold has gained greater than 50%.
An overbought market doesn’t essentially imply {that a} correction is imminent. Nonetheless, a pullback can be wholesome to ease the overheated scenario. Such consolidation phases can final for a number of weeks and are sometimes accompanied by the RSI dropping again under the 70 degree.
The primary key assist zones are the honest worth gaps between $3,790 and $3,883 in addition to $3,707 and $3,762. Buyers ought to carefully monitor how the worth behaves in these areas if the gold worth experiences a short-term pullback.
Gold, weekly chart. Supply: eToro
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