Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOGL) CEO Sundar Pichai gave a light-weight, oblique response to the rising dialogue about Gemini 3, Google’s subsequent main language mannequin – and it had main implications for predictions markets on Polymarket.
The remark got here as hypothesis intensified on Polymarket, the place merchants now estimate a 69% probability that Google will launch the mannequin on November 22.
Prediction markets are betting on Gemini 3 launch subsequent week $goog pic.twitter.com/cyvrJSMp62
— Alphabetting (@wintermoat) November 14, 2025
Polymarket has develop into the most important prediction platform for betting on real-world occasions. Customers put cash on all the pieces from product launch dates and Bitcoin (BTC) value swings to election outcomes and Federal Reserve choices.
The market has changed into a spot the place merchants attempt to value main tech strikes earlier than they occur and Gemini 3 is the newest focus.
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What Does Sundar Pichai’s “Pondering Face” Emoji Sign About Gemini 3?
Contributors commerce occasion contracts utilizing cryptocurrency. The platform just lately raised $2Bn from Intercontinental Trade (ICE), the guardian firm of the New York Inventory Trade, bringing its valuation to $9Bn.
Prediction markets are additionally gaining consideration at Google. The corporate has confirmed that Google Finance will quickly show knowledge from Polymarket and Kalshi, giving customers a approach to examine market-based chances and see how merchants are pricing real-world occasions.
With hypothesis rising round a attainable Gemini 3 launch subsequent week, Sundar Pichai stored his response transient. He posted two “pondering face” emojis on X and provided no additional clarification.
https://t.co/qOnZ87TUh0
— Sundar Pichai (@sundarpichai) November 14, 2025
His brief reply indicators that he’s holding again on particulars, more likely to keep away from including to the rising hype.
Nonetheless, the upcoming launch issues for Google. The corporate is underneath strain to slender the space between itself and companies that presently lead the AI discipline, particularly OpenAI.
The broader business is watching this launch with actual curiosity, as a result of the response to Gemini 3 will form how critically Google can compete on the high degree.
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How Dependable Are Prediction Markets In comparison with Polls and Knowledgeable Forecasts?
Enterprise Insider and different shops report that the mannequin is anticipated earlier than the tip of the 12 months.
They are saying Google is aiming for higher coding output, stronger reasoning abilities, and extra refined multimedia era.
The replace can also be anticipated to incorporate an improved model of the corporate’s Nano Banana picture system.
Pichai has already mentioned that Gemini 3 will arrive this 12 months. He has framed it as a part of Google’s push to slender the space with OpenAI after an extended stretch when ChatGPT dominated public consideration.
That brings the headline query into focus: are prediction markets open to affect from high-profile figures?
20 years of educational analysis have proven that prediction markets sometimes produce pretty correct forecasts. In lots of circumstances, they’ve even outperformed polls and professional surveys.
However newer research level to a danger. They present {that a} single massive commerce, positioned on the proper second, can shift the value in automated-market-maker techniques in ways in which don’t totally unwind.
The impact can stick, particularly when different merchants deal with that value transfer as actual info as a substitute of noise.
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