The traditional knowledge says veteran holders don’t promote into weak spot. They accumulate by drawdowns, harvest good points throughout euphoria, and in any other case sit nonetheless whereas newer cohorts churn.
Late 2025 is testing that mannequin. Throughout Ethereum, XRP, and pockets of the DeFi stack, dormant whales are shifting provide to exchanges as mid-term patrons flee, making a bifurcated distribution sample that reveals which belongings have real cost-basis depth and which stay top-heavy with current entrants.
Distribution with out capitulation
What makes this second distinct isn’t the actual fact of promoting, as veterans at all times rotate, however the timing and composition.
Ethereum whales gathered 460,000 ETH as the value slid under $3,200 in mid-November, but Santiment’s Age Consumed metric slowed quite than spiked.
That divergence issues: if fewer very previous cash are shifting whereas mixture whale balances rise, the stress comes from holders within the three-to-ten-year band trimming positions quite than ICO-era wallets dumping.
Glassnode information reveals these mid-duration cohorts promoting roughly 45,000 ETH per day, a measured tempo that contrasts with the panic-driven spikes seen earlier within the 12 months when each short- and long-term holders exited concurrently.
XRP tells the other story. Dormant Circulation for the 365-day cohort spiked to its highest stage since July as whales transferred months-long holdings to Binance, reactivating provide that had been untouched by the prior rally.
CryptoQuant’s 100-day easy shifting common for the Whale-to-Trade Circulate metric peaked on Nov. 6, signaling a multi-month uptrend and suggesting the distribution is structural quite than episodic.
When mixed with dormant-supply reactivations throughout each one-year-plus and three-to-twelve-month bands, the sample is obvious: XRP’s 2025 strikes systematically drew out older holders who had waited by consolidation and now see exits because the rational commerce.
Though the circulation of whale exchanges has subsided, it stays among the many highest ranges noticed in 2025.
The trade-off embedded in these flows is easy. Ethereum’s whales are rotating, and older holders are promoting into power as new patrons enter at greater value bases, constructing a rising realized cap flooring whilst the value consolidates.
XRP’s whales are distributing right into a market the place latecomers already maintain many of the realized cap at elevated costs, leaving no absorption cushion if spot demand continues to fade.
Realized cap because the structural inform
Realized cap measures the mixture value foundation of all cash, weighted by the value at which they final moved. For belongings that constructed real cost-basis ladders over a number of cycles, realized cap acts as long-term assist.
For belongings that printed most of their realized cap in a single blow-off, the construction is brittle: when the highest cohort sells, there’s little beneath.
Ethereum’s realized cap was $391 billion as of Nov. 18, based on Santiment, absorbing distribution from older holders through contemporary inflows whilst worth chopped sideways.
That continued accumulation at different entry factors means the community retains cost-basis variety, short-term holders sit extra uncovered if one other leg down materializes, however veteran cohorts trimming at $3,200 don’t collapse the whole construction as a result of new members stuffed the hole at intermediate ranges.
XRP’s realized cap almost doubled from $30 billion to $64 billion in the course of the late-2024 rally, with $30 billion of that coming from patrons who entered within the final six months.
By early 2025, cash youthful than 6 months accounted for 62.8% of realized cap, up from 23%, concentrating value foundation at cycle highs. Glassnode’s realized profit-to-loss ratio has trended downward since January, indicating that current entrants are actually realizing losses quite than good points.
When whales ship previous cash to exchanges in November, reactivating dormant provide at exactly the second latecomers flip underwater, the realized cap imbalance turns into the central vulnerability.
Dormancy as a number one indicator
Dormancy metrics monitor when beforehand idle provide reenters lively circulation. Spikes in these indicators don’t robotically sign tops, however quite sign regime change.
When holders who weathered prior cycles resolve situations warrant an exit, their motion usually precedes broader distribution as a result of they function on longer time horizons and bigger place sizes than retail cohorts.
Ethereum’s Age Consumed spikes in September and October got here from ICO-era wallets lastly shifting after years of inactivity, however these strikes occurred into power quite than panic.
By mid-November, as whales holding 1,000 to 100,000 ETH gathered over 1.6 million ETH, the Age Consumed metric quieted, which means the heavy flows have been pushed by massive holders rotating quite than historic wallets capitulating.
That creates a flooring: if the oldest cohorts aren’t promoting and mid-term whales are shopping for, spot absorption can deal with measured profit-taking from the three-to-ten-year band.
XRP’s dormancy sample broke the opposite method. The 365-day Dormant Circulation hit ranges unseen since July, with repeated pink spikes as previous cash awoke and moved to exchanges.
The reactivations grew to become extra frequent as the value struggled to carry above $2, suggesting that holders who sat by the consolidation determined the risk-reward not justified their persistence.
When dormancy spikes coincide with weakening spot demand and a top-heavy realized cap, the sign is unambiguous: veterans are distributing right into a market that may’t take in it with out breaking worth assist.
Who holds the bag
If Ethereum’s distribution continues on the present tempo, three-to-ten-year holders promoting 45,000 ETH every day whereas whales accumulate and realized cap rises, the result is a market with greater long-term assist however elevated short-term volatility.
New entrants at $3,000-$3,500 turn out to be the marginal sellers if worth breaks decrease, whereas veteran cohorts sit on unrealized good points massive sufficient to climate one other drawdown.
If XRP’s dormant-supply reactivations persist whereas the realized cap stays concentrated amongst holders with six-month-or-newer holdings, the trail narrows.
Every wave of veteran distribution pushes current patrons additional underwater. As a result of these current patrons account for almost all of realized cap, their capitulation would collapse the cost-basis flooring quite than merely take a look at it.
The danger is self-reinforcing: whales distribute, latecomers promote at losses, realized cap falls, and the following cohort of holders faces an excellent weaker assist construction.
For protocols like Aave, the place dormancy information stays sparse, a single deal with crystalizing $1.54 million in losses by promoting 15,396 AAVE right into a downtrend alerts pressured or fear-driven exits from current entrants, not long-term holders harvesting good points.
When these losses occur whereas the asset trades under all main shifting averages and broader DeFi danger urge for food deteriorates, late-cycle capital is exiting quite than rotating.
Who decides the ground
The central query is whether or not this cycle’s dormant provide reactivations characterize wholesome rotation, veteran holders exiting at income whereas new capital enters at greater bases, or the start of a broader deleveraging the place top-heavy realized caps collapse beneath sustained distribution.
Ethereum’s information means that older cash are shifting. Nonetheless, the majority of current circulation comes from mid-term whales trimming quite than historic wallets dumping, and rising realized cap confirms contemporary cash continues to common in.
XRP’s information means that dormancy spikes are drawing out one-year-plus holders, whereas 62.8% of realized cap sits with patrons who entered within the final six months.
The result will depend on which cohort blinks first. If current entrants maintain and spot demand stabilizes, veteran distribution will get absorbed, and the market builds a better flooring by turnover.
If latecomers capitulate earlier than veteran sellers exhaust themselves, realized cap falls, cost-basis depth evaporates, and the following assist stage sits far under the present worth.
Whales are stirring. Whether or not that’s a rotation or a rout will depend on who’s left to catch what they’re promoting.
