A crypto analyst has revisited long-term charts from 2012-2015, noting that the present Bitcoin (BTC) cycle exhibits placing similarities to this timeline, when it comes to the Relative Power Index (RSI) and worth motion. Throughout the 2017-2015 bull run, BTC skilled one of many strongest multi-year advances earlier than bottoming out. The market skilled claims that the identical sequence of peaks and pullbacks noticed in that timeline is now unfolding once more on this cycle.Â
Bitcoin RSI Comparability Alerts Bottoming Construction
Bitcoin’s newest momentum examine by crypto analyst Tony Severino has drawn vital consideration from market watchers. In his X submit on December 6, Severino highlighted shocking similarities between the RSI pattern and worth actions of the 2023-2026 cycle and people noticed from 2012 to 2015.Â
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His comparability focuses on the timing of a number of main factors that appeared in each cycles. These embrace the second a worth backside started to type, the primary worth peak, a subsequent momentum peak, and at last a Bearish Divergence that usually precedes deeper corrective phases.
Severino shared a chart from the 2012-2015 cycle exhibiting that Bitcoin’s RSI had steadily climbed, with a number of brief bursts of sharper upward momentum alongside the way in which. Ultimately, momentum light, and the indicator declined for an prolonged interval earlier than settling in a mid-range zone on the 44 stage.Â
Within the present cycle, which started in 2023, the RSI additionally climbed sharply earlier than reaching a notable peak. Since then, the indicator has been steadily declining, presently sitting round 38. This stage is much like the mid-range RSI values noticed within the former cycle earlier than Bitcoin superior once more.Â
Sharing a second chart, Severino additionally pointed to Bitcoin’s worth motion relative to its RSI efficiency throughout each cycles. Throughout the earlier cycle, Bitcoin’s worth sat round $233.54, whereas within the current cycle, it has declined to $89,352. The analyst argues that the alignment between the RSI actions and worth motion in each timelines strengthens his concept that Bitcoin could also be approaching a significant backside quickly.Â
Severino additionally recommended that if historical past repeats within the 2023-2026 cycle, merchants may very well be trying on the early phases of a year-long accumulation section, much like what performed out a decade in the past. However, he acknowledged that there isn’t a assure that the present cycle will mirror previous patterns fully.Â
Analyst Flags New BTC Bullish Crossover
Crypto analyst AO has shared a extra optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, highlighting the formation of a Bullish Crossover—a key technical sign that has traditionally preceded vital worth surges. In line with him, every time the Stochastic RSI on US10Y*CN10Y experiences a Bullish Crossover, Bitcoin enters a major bull run.
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AO offered a chart showcasing 4 earlier Bullish Crossovers, every adopted by a large worth improve. The primary crossover appeared in 2013 and coincided with an early surge. The second got here in 2017, marking the beginning of a multi-month bull run. The third occurred in late 2020, shortly earlier than BTC’s record-breaking run in 2021. The latest sign has not emerged in 2025, suggesting the potential for the same upward transfer.
Featured picture from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
