Open curiosity in SOL derivatives falls from $3.20B to $2.87B.
Worth faces resistance at 50-day EMA, $150 is vital assist.
Polymarket reveals 80% odds of Solana ETF approval.
Solana is below stress as June begins, with its worth down 18% over the previous three weeks.
The newest set off got here on 30 Could, when the US Securities and Trade Fee (SEC) raised issues over two proposed staking exchange-traded funds (ETFs) involving Solana and Ethereum.
The company’s response despatched a chill via the derivatives market, with whole open curiosity (OI) in Solana futures dropping from $3.20 billion to $2.87 billion.
The funding price additionally slipped into detrimental territory, indicating declining confidence amongst perpetual merchants.
The ETFs in query have been proposed by REX Shares and Osprey Funds.
Whereas particulars of their constructions weren’t totally disclosed, they aimed to supply publicity to staking-based returns via a regulated car.
Nonetheless, the SEC flagged “unresolved questions” round whether or not these funds qualify as authentic funding corporations below the Funding Firm Act of 1940. The remark got here through a submitting attributed to Brent J. Fields, Affiliate Director on the SEC.
Solana faces resistance as bearish momentum builds
Solana was already displaying indicators of weak point earlier than the SEC announcement.
The token confronted constant resistance close to the 50-day exponential shifting common (EMA), with costs unable to interrupt previous the $160–$170 vary all through the second half of Could.
After hitting a excessive of $187.19 on 20 Could, Solana reversed course and fell to $152.83 by the beginning of June.
On the intraday chart, SOL dropped by 3% as bears gained momentum.
Technical indicators level to additional draw back threat. The rejection from the 50-day EMA band has confirmed bearish management, with merchants eyeing key assist zones at $150, $140, and $120.
A sustained break beneath $150 might see SOL testing its multi-month assist ranges final seen in Q1 2024.
The derivatives knowledge mirrors this sentiment. Funding charges, which replicate the price of holding lengthy positions in perpetual futures, turned detrimental at -0.0044%, down from +0.0033%.
In the meantime, open curiosity—a measure of market exercise—fell by over 10% inside every week.
These modifications present that leverage merchants are unwinding their lengthy positions amid elevated regulatory uncertainty.
SEC staking ETF probe deepens regulatory uncertainty
The SEC’s issues surrounding staking-based ETFs replicate a broader unease with crypto-native monetary devices getting into conventional markets.
Though Ethereum futures ETFs have been authorized prior to now, no product has but provided returns tied to staking rewards.
Solana, particularly, poses further dangers as a consequence of its extra centralised validator set and historical past of community outages.
By elevating objections now, the SEC could also be signalling a more durable stance on newer ETF proposals, particularly these involving yield-generating protocols.
For Solana, this creates further headwinds, as any delay or rejection of staking ETFs might restrict mainstream adoption and capital influx.
Merchants and analysts have additionally pointed to the dearth of readability on whether or not Solana is a safety or commodity, a debate that has lingered since 2022.
Regardless of these short-term roadblocks, the longer-term sentiment seems extra optimistic.
On prediction market platform Polymarket, odds of a Solana ETF approval have climbed to over 80%, suggesting that traders nonetheless see eventual regulatory clearance as seemingly.
Nonetheless, the timing and scope of such an approval stay unsure.
Solana’s June outlook hinges on key assist ranges
With SOL buying and selling beneath its 50-day EMA and investor urge for food dwindling within the derivatives house, a lot now relies on how the market reacts at key assist ranges.
A agency defence of the $150 mark might set the stage for a rebound later within the month, particularly if broader crypto sentiment improves.
Conversely, failure to carry $150 might result in additional capitulation in direction of $140 and even $120.
Whereas some on-chain knowledge reveals constant exercise throughout the Solana ecosystem, together with progress in decentralised functions and each day transaction counts, worth motion stays largely dictated by macro and regulatory forces.
The SEC’s newest feedback have injected a contemporary dose of uncertainty, and for now, market contributors seem like de-risking.
As Solana enters June on a cautious observe, its short-term trajectory will seemingly depend upon two fronts—readability from regulators and a return of speculative curiosity in high-beta altcoins. Till then, the trail of least resistance seems to be downward.
