Bitcoin surged previous $121,000 as we speak, pushing in direction of its all-time excessive because the fourth quarter of 2025 kicked off with renewed momentum for Bitcoin.
The rally follows a robust September end, when Bitcoin gained about 5% to shut round $114,000 — a efficiency that considerably defied Bitcoin’s fame for seasonal weak point.
Traditionally, when September has ended within the inexperienced, Bitcoin has usually gone on to put up outsized fourth-quarter positive factors. Knowledge from Bitcoin Journal Professional reveals that in years similar to 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, fourth-quarter rallies averaged greater than 50%.
That seasonal development has already earned October the nickname “Uptober” amongst merchants. Since 2015, the month has produced common positive factors of 21.8%, with November including one other 10.8%.
If historical past rhymes, Bitcoin may very well be on monitor to clear $150,000 earlier than the tip of the 12 months.
Bitcoin all-time excessive coming?
In line with Bitcoin Journal Professional information, Bitcoin has climbed practically 3% in 24 hours, advancing from round $117,500 to only over $121,000. Over the past month, Bitcoin has notched a achieve of greater than 9%, rising from roughly $110,700.
On a year-to-date foundation, Bitcoin has delivered a return of 27%, underscoring its resilience regardless of ongoing volatility throughout broader markets.
With costs now lower than 3% away from the all-time excessive of over $124,000, it appears just like the stage is about for a breakout if shopping for strain continues.
Bitcoin’s bullish momentum
This newest surge got here as conventional financial metrics reeled from the U.S. authorities’s shutdown at midnight after Congress did not move a funding invoice. With Wall Road below strain and financial information releases now on maintain, buyers flocked to arduous belongings.
This 12 months’s positive factors additionally construct on April’s halving occasion, which minimize Bitcoin’s new provide in half — a milestone that has traditionally preceded vital upward strain on worth. On the similar time, key liquidity indicators are flashing inexperienced.
World M2 cash provide development, stablecoin issuance, and a rally in gold — which Bitcoin has usually tracked with a lag — all level to strengthening demand.
Citigroup analysts this week set a 12-month projection for Bitcoin at $181,000, citing sturdy inflows that would attain $7.5 billion by December.
“We’re extra optimistic on Bitcoin in comparison with Ether, because it captures an outsized portion of incremental flows into crypto markets,” Citi analysts wrote, including {that a} friendlier regulatory setting might maintain momentum into 2026.
With Bitcoin already logging report highs in 2025, the fourth quarter now looms as a decisive stretch.
