Bitcoin provide information: cost-basis bands, miner stress, and ETF circulate indicators
Bitcoin is presently buying and selling outdoors a $93,000–$110,000 cost-basis band that Glassnode frames as an “overhead provide” zone.
That setup places the subsequent quarter’s provide story on miner money circulate and holder conduct slightly than the issuance schedule. In response to Glassnode’s Week On-chain W02 2026, the Quick-Time period Holder (STH) price foundation sits close to $98,300.
That degree typically turns into a reference level for whether or not current consumers add publicity or distribute into rebounds.
On the similar time, mining markets are pricing a lean profitability regime.
The Hashrate Index roundup dated Jan. 26, 2026 put the six-month hashprice ahead curve at about $33.25 per PH/s per day (about 0.00041 BTC), under the zone it has described as breakeven for a lot of miners ($39.50) relying on working prices and machine varieties.
Associated CryptoSlate context: miner-stress narratives typically hinge on the identical profitability/issue loop described in Bitcoin’s hashrate continues to fall as the value spike doesn’t persuade miners to show machines again on.
This quarter’s further variable is whether or not ETF flows act as a sink for tradable provide or a launch valve.
SoSoValue information recorded $681 million in internet outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs within the first full buying and selling week of 2026, in a risk-off setup tied to charge expectations and macro headlines. Final week, internet flows reached -$1.3 billion, the worst week since Could 2025.
For added CryptoSlate reporting context on that very same early-2026 circulate regime, see Bitcoin breaking $126,000 has clear 3 12 months pathway however a brutal $1.3 billion exodus modifications every thing immediately.
Key takeaways
Bitcoin’s issuance schedule is fastened by the protocol, with a 21 million cap and reward halvings each 210,000 blocks. Close to-term “provide shocks” have a tendency to come back from tradable float and incentives, in accordance with Blockchain.com’s provide chart.Glassnode locations present overhead provide between $93,000 and $110,000, with the STH price foundation round $98,300. That vary turns into a demand-absorption take a look at for the quarter, in accordance with Glassnode W02 2026.Hashrate and issue already adjusted to emphasize, with the 7-day SMA hashrate shifting from 1,003 EH/s to 966 EH/s and issue falling 3.28% to 141.67T on Jan. 22, in accordance with Hashrate Index (Jan. 26, 2026). For background, see Bitcoin hashrate hits new excessive of 943 EH/s as issue adjusted down 0.45%.Mining forwards implying roughly $39.50/PH/s/day over six months retains consideration on miner treasury administration and shutdown danger. “Breakeven” is dependent upon opex and fleet effectivity, in accordance with Hashrate Index.ETF circulate route stays a swing issue after such a horrible month to begin the 12 months, with $1 billion in internet outflows.
Who that is for
Lengthy-term allocators monitoring cohort provide, cost-basis bands, and maturation dynamicsSwing merchants targeted on the STH price foundation and overhead provide reactionsInstitutional desks monitoring ETF circulate regimes and miner-driven liquidityMining and infra operators managing hashprice publicity and issue timing
What to observe this quarter
Value conduct across the STH price foundation close to $98,300 and regaining its place contained in the $93,000–$110,000 overhead band (Glassnode W02 2026)Six-month hashprice expectations recovering to close $39.50/PH/s/day and spot hashprice divergence from the curve (Hashrate Index)Issue adjustment cadence following the Jan. 22, 3.28% drop to 141.67T (Hashrate Index).Venue circulate combine, together with Glassnode’s be aware that Binance and mixture alternate flows shifted into buy-dominant regimes whereas Coinbase promote strain eased (Glassnode W02 2026)Weekly spot Bitcoin ETF internet flows after $1.3 billion outflows final week.
Issuance fundamentals + halving (what’s fastened vs what’s variable)
Bitcoin’s complete provide path is deterministic on the protocol layer, with a most of 21 million BTC and block-subsidy halvings each 210,000 blocks.
That constraint issues for long-horizon valuation and for quarter-to-quarter issuance math. New provide enters on a schedule the market can mannequin.
The extra fast query for the subsequent quarter is market-available provide.
Meaning the stock that may attain spot venues by way of miner gross sales, holder distribution, and ETF creations or redemptions. That is the place “provide shocks” typically kind, because the issuance curve is thought whereas liquidity selections are conditional.
Most quarter-scale volatility maps to the second.
Miner economics & promote strain (why hashprice is the reside provide lever)
Mining acts as an elastic provide lever as a result of miner BTC gross sales are one of many few structural sources of recurring distribution.
That elasticity was seen in late January. Hashrate Index reported the 7-day SMA hashrate fell from 1,003 EH/s to 966 EH/s, and community issue adjusted down 3.28% to 141.67T on Jan. 22.
Ahead markets additionally indicate constrained miner margins.
The identical roundup reported the hashprice ahead curve pricing a mean of about $33.25 per PH/s per day over the subsequent six months. Hashrate Index has individually described $39–$40/PH/s/day as close to breakeven for a lot of miners, whereas stressing it varies by working prices and machine mannequin.
A forward-looking body for this quarter makes use of three conditional paths grounded in these information factors:
Close to-breakeven grind: If hashprice recovers close to the forward-implied ~$33.25/PH/s/day, higher-cost fleets face tighter treasury situations.That may translate into periodic hashrate dips and episodic spot promoting to fund operations, in accordance with Hashrate Index.Issue-driven aid: If hashrate weakens additional, subsequent issue reductions can raise income per unit hash even with flat BTC value.That reduces pressured promoting on the margin, because the Jan. 22 adjustment illustrates.Macro-driven compression: If a broader risk-off transfer pressures BTC value whereas hashprice sits close to breakeven, shutdowns can speed up.That feeds the identical difficulty-relief loop with unsure timing.
Miner steadiness sheet coverage can shift realized promote strain inside 1 / 4.
Associated CryptoSlate miner-stress framing: Bitcoin faces potential miner capitulation as hash charge continues to drop.
Lengthy-term vs short-term holders (the place overhead provide truly comes from)
Glassnode’s present map frames the provision overhang as a cost-basis band slightly than a single value.
In Week On-chain W02 2026, it described the market as testing provide spanning roughly $93,000–$110,000, whereas putting the STH price foundation at $98,300.
For this quarter, that framing issues as a result of it defines the place prior consumers could use rallies to exit.
It additionally defines the place new demand should take up stock to keep away from renewed distribution.
Holder conduct has softened versus late 2025 with out flipping into accumulation.
Glassnode mentioned Lengthy-Time period Holder (LTH) provide continues to development decrease, whereas the speed of decline slowed materially in contrast with the distribution seen all through Q3 and This autumn 2025. It additionally put LTH internet realized revenue close to 12.8k BTC per week, down from cycle peaks above 100k BTC per week.
The regime-change situation Glassnode identifies for a extra sturdy rally is a shift the place maturation provide outpaces LTH spending.
That will push LTH provide increased. In quarter phrases, the overhead band can clear provided that promoting strain decelerates sooner than new and returning demand.
One technical caveat issues when readers examine dashboards.
Glassnode’s provide endpoints don’t deal with 155 days as a tough cutoff. Its cohorts use a logistic weighting centered at 155 days with a 10-day transition width.
Widespread myths (provide narratives that fail beneath measurement)
Delusion: The halving creates fast shortage in tradable provide. Issuance modifications are block-based and recognized, whereas quarter-scale provide strain is commonly pushed by miner profitability and holder distribution selections.Delusion: 155 days is a strict boundary for LTH classification. Glassnode’s provide cohorts use a logistic weighting centered at 155 days with a 10-day transition width, which impacts interpretation close to inflection factors.Delusion: Miner capitulation is a single occasion. The hashrate and issue system can ratchet down after which normalize profitability per unit hash, as seen within the Jan. 22 issue discount following a hashrate decline.
Metrics dashboard (the minimal set to watch for the subsequent 6 months)
AreaMetricCurrent reference from sourcesWhy it issues this quarterSourceProtocolSupply cap and halving cadence21M max provide, halving each 210,000 blocksAnchors issuance math, shifts focus to tradable floatBlockchain.comMiningHashrate (7-day SMA)1,003 EH/s to 966 EH/s (late Jan. 2026)Shutdown danger and miner income stress proxyHashrate Index (Jan. 26, 2026)MiningDifficulty adjustments-3.28% to 141.67T on Jan. 22, 2026Mechanical aid valve for miner marginsHashrate Index (Jan. 26, 2026)MiningHashprice ahead curve (6 months)~$33.25/PH/s/dayFrames treasury strain and forced-sell probabilityHashrate Index (Feb. 3, 2026)HoldersOverhead provide band~$93k to $110kDefines the place prior price foundation can convert rallies into promote flowGlassnode W02 2026HoldersSTH price foundation~$98.3kConfidence threshold for current consumers close to overhead supplyGlassnode W02 2026HoldersLTH distribution pacing~12.8k BTC per week internet realized revenue, slower than prior peaksTracks whether or not distribution is fading or resuming into strengthGlassnode W02 2026LiquidityVenue circulate dominanceBinance and mixture flows buy-dominant, Coinbase promote strain easedAbsorption capability at overhead provide is dependent upon routingGlassnode W02 2026ETFsWeekly internet flows-$1B in first month of 2026Net outflows can return stock to the market through redemptionsSoSoValue through reporting
Purple flags & invalidation
Any declare that alternate balances are “down X% lately” with no current-dated dataset ought to be handled as invalid.“Breakeven hashprice” ought to stay conditional on opex and {hardware}, since Hashrate Index frames $39–$40/PH/s/day as close to breakeven for a lot of miners relying on these inputs.
Motion guidelines, monitoring routine
Weekly: File ETF internet circulate signal and magnitude after the -$681 million outflow week, utilizing SoSoValue-linked reporting for comparability.Every issue epoch: Monitor whether or not issue continues to fall after Jan. 22’s 3.28% discount, and examine with hashrate route for miner stress context.Day by day/rolling: Examine spot hashprice to the six-month ahead common close to $33.25/PH/s/day to gauge whether or not miners face tightening or aid.Regime test: Monitor whether or not LTH provide stays internet declining or turns up beneath Glassnode’s “maturation exceeds spending” situation.Value context: Observe market reactions round $98,300 and inside $93,000–$110,000, since these ranges map to STH and overhead provide price foundation within the present Glassnode framing.
These inputs ought to be tied again to the fastened Bitcoin issuance schedule.
