In an interview with CNBC’s Road Indicators on February 27, Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Analysis at Commonplace Chartered, provided insights on Bitcoin’s latest worth decline and laid out a daring forecast for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Regardless of near-term volatility, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to achieve $200,000 this yr and as excessive as $500,000 earlier than the tip of President Trump’s time period.
Bitcoin Crash? No Drawback!
Kendrick opened the dialogue by noting the affect of political developments on investor sentiment: “So I feel the Trump Administration can be constructive medium time period. So we got here into January 20, hoping for quite a bit and you would argue there was already various positivity priced in.”
He highlighted the quick post-inauguration shift in regulatory stance—particularly, the elimination of SAB 121, which he described as having “been hampering monetary establishments.” Kendrick additionally addressed the shortage of a extensively anticipated strategic Bitcoin reserve, changed as an alternative by a “stockpile” strategy. In accordance with Kendrick: “The stockpile for me is okay as a result of it legitimizes different sovereigns […] each throughout the US [and outside]. Numerous US states are contemplating holding Bitcoin on their stability sheet.”
Nonetheless, markets have been rattled by recent uncertainties. Kendrick pointed to ongoing commerce conflict and geopolitical flashpoints: “Initiatives within the final couple of weeks have been very complicated for threat property […] tariffs on and off. Canada, Mexico, EU […] clearly some potential positives coming round Ukraine and or the Center East however nothing stable actually on any of these and threat property don’t like uncertainty.”
Throughout the crypto sphere particularly, he cited the Bybit hack, bother with the Solana meme coin scams, and a typically “complicated” atmosphere as contributors to the pullback. Kendrick underscored the cascading impact on Bitcoin.
When requested whether or not Bitcoin stays a real diversifier amid its correlation with equities, Kendrick maintained a nuanced view: “Definitely after we see giant strikes like we’ve seen in the previous few weeks […] on the detrimental path threat property all commerce collectively […] Medium-term, I feel the diversification story is affordable […] The use case for Bitcoin particularly is to diversify in opposition to dangers round conventional monetary markets.”
Kendrick additionally addressed the massive outflows from the spot ETFs since Trump’s inauguration: “Even within the final week, we’ve seen about $3 billion of outflows when it comes to ETFs […] we received to a internet place of about $40 billion of inflows over the primary 12 months of these ETFs within the US […] however within the final week or so we’ve seen $3 billion of outflows.”
He estimates that those that purchased Bitcoin post-election in November at the moment are “closely underwater” to the tune of $2 billion in paper losses. This newer cohort of holders, mixed with the sector’s still-robust retail participation, has amplified volatility: “It’s way more tough for traders then to carry via losses […] if you see strikes like we noticed this week, you are likely to get some panic promoting.”
$200,000 Goal Nonetheless In Play
He additionally reiterated the necessity for deeper institutional participation—citing banks like Commonplace Chartered and funding giants similar to BlackRock—to enhance custody options and cut back the frequency of such hacks just like the Bybit one, resulting in damaging headlines:
“Because the business turns into extra institutionalized it ought to be safer […] hopefully we get some regulatory readability within the US too […] that ought to add to that medium-term prime facet potential which for me is Bitcoin as much as $200,000 this yr and $500,000 earlier than Trump leaves workplace.”
Trying forward, Kendrick underscored that regulatory readability—notably round stablecoin guidelines and KYC—may set off a wave of institutional and even sovereign capital inflows. He recognized long-term public pension funds and sovereign wealth funds as pivotal market movers, referencing the Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund’s buy of 4,700 BTC-equivalent shares within the BlackRock ETF on the finish of 2024:
“There’s that very long-term sector that’s nonetheless to take part extra […] after which additionally Sovereign so the one Sovereign that we all know to this point has purchased the ETFs is Abu Sovereign wealth fund […] I’d anticipate extra of that to return via this yr as properly.”
At press time, BTC traded at $81,428.
Featured picture from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
