Think about a world the place humanoid robots outnumber folks—this a actuality Tesla CEO Elon Musk mentioned we’ll see by the 12 months 2040.
Musk’s prediction got here in the course of the annual Future Funding Initiative convention in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Tuesday.
“I feel by 2040 in all probability there are extra humanoid robots than there are folks,” Musk informed the viewers. “Each nation could have an AI or a number of AIs, and there will probably be quite a lot of robots, far more robots than folks.”
Based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s World Inhabitants Clock, the variety of people at present stands at round 8.2 billion.
Musk has beforehand heralded the surge of humanoid robots and superior AI and the way it might affect humanity, going as far as to say people will face a ‘disaster of which means.’
“For those who’ve acquired humanoid robots—when there isn’t any actual restrict on the variety of humanoid robots—they usually can function very intelligently, then there isn’t any precise restrict to the economic system in it,” Musk mentioned on the 2024 All-In Summit hosted by the All-In Podcast, in September.
Specialists, nevertheless, disagree with Musk’s assertion that the AI robotic revolution is nearing.
“Elon has a monitor report of overoptimistic predictions about AI, and this one isn’t any totally different,” writer and scientist Gary Marcus informed Decrypt, contrasting proudly owning a robotic to proudly owning a automotive.
“There are solely about 1.5 billion vehicles on the street; many individuals can’t afford one or don’t see the necessity,” Marcus mentioned. “The identical will probably be true for humanoid robots, and we aren’t going to see six humanoid robots for each automotive anytime quickly.”
Marcus is a cognitive scientist, AI researcher, and writer of six books on synthetic intelligence identified for critiquing overhyped AI claims. In September, Marcus criticized OpenAI for not delivering on GPT-5 or Sora, regardless of being valued at $150 billion.
“Completely insane,” he mentioned. “Traders shouldn’t be pouring more cash at increased valuations. They need to be asking what’s going on.”
In the course of the unveiling of the brand new autonomous cybercabs earlier this month, Musk showcased Tesla’s Optimus robots, which he mentioned could be reasonably priced, with long-term value projections of round $20,000 to $30,000 every.
Regardless of Musk’s guarantees of reasonably priced robots for everybody, Marcus mentioned financial and security issues, together with important software program and {hardware} challenges, would make widespread adoption of humanoid robots within the close to future unlikely.
“Roomba, the best-selling client robotic of all time, sells for a couple of hundred {dollars} and has bought round 50 million items,” Marcus mentioned. “It’s simply fantasy to think about promoting 200 instances as many humanoid robots within the nearish time period when no person is aware of the best way to construct a single protected, dependable, typically helpful humanoid proper now, at any value.”
Edited by Sebastian Sinclair
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